CREB® January 2020 Statistics

Media release: 2020 opens with a slight gain in sales  

City of Calgary, February 3, 2020 – 

Housing market conditions continue to follow similar trends to last year, with gains in sales.

At the same time, there have been further reductions in new listings, inventory and more declines in prices.

January sales activity was 863 units, nearly eight per cent higher than last year’s levels. While sales remained well below January activity recorded before 2014, they remain consistent with activity recorded over the past five years.

“A persistent slowdown in the energy sector has resulted in a reset in many aspects of our economy. This includes the housing market,” said CREB^® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie. 

“We continue to see the slow adjustment to more balanced conditions, but it will take time before that starts to translate into price stability.”

Citywide unadjusted benchmark prices were $417,100 in January. This is slightly lower than the previous month and nearly one per cent lower than last year’s levels. 

Benchmark prices eased, but there were some modest improvements in both the average and median prices. This is likely a reflection of some changes in the distribution of sales.  

HOUSING MARKET FACTS

Detached

• Detached sales in January improved by six per cent, thanks to growth in all districts except the North East. 
• New listings declined by nearly 11 per cent due to pullbacks in all areas except the City Centre and the North districts. Combined with adjustments in sales, this caused inventories to ease by 15 per cent citywide.
• Reductions in supply and gains in sales supported reductions in the months of supply from nearly six months last year to just under five months this January. 
• Detached benchmark prices eased by nearly one per cent compared to last year. However, the only two areas to record notable year-over-year declines were the City Centre and West, with price declines exceeding three per cent.

Apartment

• Improving sales were met with gains in new listings, causing inventories to increase by 12 per cent compared to last year. 
• The gain in inventories prevented any significant adjustment in the months of supply, which remained elevated at nine months.
• The persistent oversupply continued to weigh on benchmark prices, which eased compared to last month and declined by two per cent compared to last year.

Attached

• Despite slower sales in the South and South east district, city-wide attached sales improved by four per cent.  At the same time new listings eased by nearly 18 per cent, causing inventories to decline by ten per cent.
• Improving sales and a drop in inventory helped the months of supply to dip below seven months, a significant improvement compared to last year’s level of nearly eight months.
• While this segment is trending toward more balanced conditions, persistent oversupply continues to weigh on prices, which trended down over the previous month and eased by over one per cent compared to last year’s levels.

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

• Improving sales and easing inventories helped push the months of supply down to 4.7 months. This represents levels that are consistent with longer-term trends and reflects relatively balanced conditions.
• The improvements in the supply relative to demand have started to generate much more stability in prices, which have remained comparable to last month and slightly higher than last year’s levels.

Cochrane

• January recorded a significant gain in sales and a significant drop in new listings. This resulted in a drop in the months of supply to four months, a significant improvement from the 14 months recorded last January.
• If the improvements continue, this should start to support price stability. However, the recent change has not yet impacted prices, which remain nearly three per cent lower than last year’s levels.

Okotoks

• Sales activity in town improved to levels consistent with longer-term trends. The improvement in sales helped offset the slight rise in new listings, helping reduce inventories and bringing the months of supply down to levels more consistent with balanced conditions.
• The steady reduction in oversupply in this market is helping to generate more stability in prices. In January, benchmark prices remained comparable to levels recorded last year.

Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.

Click here to view the full Calgary region monthly stats package.

The blog post CREB® January 2020 Statistics was originally published to https://sellerdirect.com

Calgary Real Estate Forecast 2020

Media release: Calgary’s housing market expected to support more stable conditions in 2020Calgary, Jan. 14, 2019 – Since the oil price crash, Calgary has faced job losses, wage reductions and tightening national housing policy. These factors have all contributed to the slower sales environment, excess supply and citywide price adjustments of more than 10 per cent.

However, as Calgary moves into the sixth year of this cycle, there are indications of adjustments to these conditions throughout the housing market. 

“Job growth, combined with recent easing in mortgage rates and price declines, is starting to bring some purchasers back into the lower end of the market,” said Ann-Marie Lurie, CREB^® chief economist.

“We are seeing more transactions in the $500,000-and-below price point for residential homes.”

The shifts in consumers’ preference toward lower-priced product is expected to continue at the cost of persistent weakness in the higher end of the market. However, as the under-$500,000 market reflects a larger share of total activity, the gains in this sector will outweigh the losses from the higher end, resulting in modest growth in sales and a reduction in downward pressure in prices.

The current housing market conditions are different from what was recorded prior to 2014. We are settling into a new normal of slower sales, supply choice, limited price growth and a cautious consumer. 

“Whether you are a buyer or seller, having all the facts, strategies and data is critical to ensuring you get into the right home, or sell your existing home, in an appropriate time frame,” said Alan Tennant, CREB^® CEO.

“A REALTOR^® can guide a homebuyer or seller through the process and help avoid the guess work.” 

Click here for the full CREB^® 2020 Forecast Calgary and Region Yearly Outlook report.

The post Calgary Real Estate Forecast 2020 was originally seen on https://www.sellerdirect.com

CREB® November 2019 Statistics

Calgary housing market still favours the buyer

City of Calgary, December 2, 2019 – Year-to-date residential sales in the city remain just above last year’s levels due to improvements in the attached sector so far this year.

However, November sales activity eased over last year’s levels, mostly due to pullbacks in the apartment sector. 

Meanwhile, new listings eased enough relative to sales to cause inventories to ease and the amount of oversupply to come down slightly compared to last year’s levels.

“Achieving more stable conditions will take time. Sales activity has been settling in at lower levels and is likely being influenced by the economic conditions and uncertainty weighing on our market,” said CREB^® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

“While the amount of supply in the market continues to ease, the persistent oversupply continues to weigh on prices.”

As of November, the citywide unadjusted benchmark price was $419,100. This is just below last month’s levels and two per cent lower than last year’s levels. 

Market conditions continue to vary depending on price, location and product type. For example, prices have ranged from a year-to-date decline of nearly eight per cent for row product in the East district to a two per cent increase for semi-detached product in the North district.

Larger price declines are often caused by high supply in the new-home and resale markets relative to demand.

HOUSING MARKET FACTS

Detached

• Detached sales improved in November over last year’s levels, mostly due to growth in the $400,000 – $500,000 range. However, sales in November and overall activity remain low by historical standards.
• Despite some recent gains in sales activity, year-to-date sales remain comparable to last year’s levels and 20 per cent below longer-term trends. However, detached sales have improved in both the North West and South districts this year.
• Improving sales, combined with further declines in new listings, helped reduce inventories in this sector compared to levels recorded last year. However, supply levels remained elevated based on seasonal comparisons.
• Like some of the other sectors, the detached market is slowly moving toward more balanced conditions. However, it is still oversupplied, and this trend continues to weigh on prices.
• The detached unadjusted benchmark price was $481,500 in November, slightly lower than last month’s levels and two per cent below last year’s prices. 

Apartment

• Apartment sales pulled back this month, causing year-to-date sales to remain comparable to last year’s levels and 21 per cent below long-term averages. 
• The monthly decline in sales was mostly driven by pullbacks in the City Centre, North West and South East districts. However, on a year-to-date basis, sales activity improved in the North, West and South East districts.
• New listings rose across most districts, causing city-wide inventory gains this month. Much of the gains were a result of a rise in new-home listings filtering into the resale market. Despite the monthly shift, year-to-date new listings and inventories remain lower than last year’s levels.
• Weaker sales, combined with rising inventories, pushed November months of supply to over seven months. This is higher than last year’s levels of more than five months. 
• Persistent oversupply in this sector caused prices to ease. The year-to-date benchmark price declined by more than two per cent.

Attached

• Year-to-date sales remain more than six per cent higher than last year’s levels and just below long-term averages.
• New listings eased this month compared to last year and sales improved.  Inventories continue to ease from the monthly highs recorded last year. While the attached market remains oversupplied, the market continues to improve over last year’s levels.
• November semi-detached prices eased by two per cent compared to last year. The largest year-over-year declines occurred in the City Centre district. 
• Row prices eased by nearly four per cent compared to last year. Annual declines ranged from more than seven per cent in the North East district to nearly two per cent in the North West and East districts.

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

• Sales activity continue to improve in November compared to last year. This caused year-to-date sales to rise to 1,146 units, an increase over last year and consistent with long-term averages. 
• The rise in sales continued to be met with a pullback in new listings, resulting in inventory declines. This helped reduce the months of supply and November levels are much closer to balanced conditions.
• Easing oversupply has helped reduce the downward pressure on prices this month. However, it was not enough to offset earlier declines. The year-to-date benchmark price in Airdrie was $332,345, three per cent below last year’s levels.

Cochrane

• November sales eased compared to the previous year, but it was not enough to offset earlier gains, as year-to-date sales remained just above last year’s levels. 
• The notable adjustment this month was in new listings, which eased enough to offset any declines in sales. This caused further inventory reductions compared to last year. While the months of supply did not shift much this month, year-to-date levels have eased from the previous year and remain just above longer-term averages.
• Despite supply reductions, the market remains oversupplied, which continues to weigh on prices. In November, prices the benchmark price was $394,200, lower than last month and more than four per cent below last year’s levels.

Okotoks

• November sales continued to improve over the low levels of activity recorded last year. The steady gains have caused year-to-date sales to rise above last year’s levels but remain below longer-term averages.
• Inventory levels have also been easing, thanks to a rise in sales and reduction in new listings. While the market remains oversupplied, these adjustments are supporting moves toward more balanced conditions.
• Prices in this market have been slower to adjust. In November, the unadjusted benchmark price was $412,100, lower than last month and over two per cent lower than last year. 

Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.

Click here to view the full Calgary region monthly stats package.

CREB® November 2019 Statistics was originally published to https://sellerdirect.com/

CREB® September 2019 Statistics

Media release: Shifting to stability

City of Calgary, October 1, 2019 – For the third consecutive month, sales activity improved over last year’s figures, and year-over-year new listings and inventories eased. This trend will help support more stability in the housing market.

“Price declines have likely brought some buyers back into the market,” said CREB^® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie, noting improvements in the market continue to be driven by homes priced below $500,000.

In the condominium apartment market, sales improved by 16 per cent this month. This represents the segment’s best September since 2015.  Year-to-date growth in both the attached and apartment sector were enough to offset the modest decline in the detached sector resulting in year-to-date sales growth of nearly one per cent in the city. 

Despite improving sales and reductions in inventory, the overall market remains oversupplied. This continues to weigh on prices.

“While housing demand is modestly improving, sales activity remains relatively weak,” said Lurie. “The market is moving toward more stable conditions, but this is mostly related to supply adjustments in the city.”    

September inventory levels are still elevated at 6,889 units, but this figure represents a decline of 13 per cent compared to last year. The months of supply in the Calgary market currently sits at five months. These conditions continue to favour the buyer, but not to the same degree seen at this time last year.

September’s citywide unadjusted benchmark price of $424,900 is two per cent lower than last year’s levels.

HOUSING MARKET FACTS

Detached

• Improvements in sales over the past three months were not enough to offset pullbacks that occurred earlier in the year, as year-to-date sales remain nearly one per cent lower than last year’s levels. Despite citywide declines, sales improved in both the North West and South districts, thanks to significant gains in sales of homes priced below $500,000.
• The months of supply remains elevated at over four months, although this is an improvement compared to the same time last year.
• Benchmark prices in September ranged from a year-over-year decline of more than four per cent in the South district to general stability in the North East, North and West districts.

Apartment

• Sales improved by 16 per cent this month, making it the best September recorded in the past three years. Despite recent improvements in sales, year-to-date levels remain stable compared to last year, but well below longer-term trends.
• Condominium apartment sales were varied across the city. Significant growth was reported in the North and South East districts. Both districts have seen significant new-home development which could be influencing resale activity.
• Oversupply continues to weigh on prices in this segment, as unadjusted prices remain 17 per cent below 2014 highs.

Attached

• Sales increases for both semi-detached and row product have improved year-to-date attached sales by more than five per cent compared to last year. It is the only product type that has recorded significant gains year-over-year.
• New listings continue to ease, reducing inventory and the months of supply. 
• Despite some annual reductions in the months of supply, buyers’ market conditions persist and prices continue to ease. Year-to-date benchmark price declines ranged from a high of nearly six per cent in the City Centre to a low of three per cent in the North East.

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

• Conditions in the resale market continue to show signs of growth. Sales activity improved in September, pushing year-to-date sales up by nearly three per cent. New listings eased, which helped reduce inventory in the market.
• The market remains slightly oversupplied, but the months of supply is edging down from last year’s high levels. This is supporting more stability in monthly price movements. As of September, the unadjusted benchmark price was nearly two per cent lower than last year’s levels.

Cochrane

• Sales in the area continue to improve and year-to-date levels remain the third-highest on record. The area faces fewer challenges with demand than the Calgary market, but elevated inventories continue to weigh on prices.
• Inventories are starting to trend down. If this continues, the market should move into more balanced conditions and, eventually, support some price stability.

Okotoks

• Sales activity continues to recover from the low levels recorded last year. Improving sales and easing new listings are causing year-over-year inventory declines and reducing oversupply in the market.
• The market has been trending into balanced conditions, but prices have been slow to react.  Year-to-date benchmark prices remain just over four per cent lower than last year’s levels.

Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.

Click here to view the full Calgary region monthly stats package.

The post CREB® September 2019 Statistics See more on: Seller Direct Real Estate

CREB® August 2019 Statistics

Media release: Sales activity increase led by lower-priced homes

Sales activity increase led by lower-priced homes

City of Calgary, September 3, 2019 – Increased sales and easing new listings reduced housing inventories in August. Sales were primarily driven by homes priced below $500,000.

“Employment numbers have been improving, but mostly in industries that are traditionally lower paid,” said CREB^® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “This is contributing to the shift that we are seeing in the housing market, with growth being limited to product priced below $500,000.” 

Rising sales for homes priced under $500,000 offset sales declines in the higher price ranges. This caused August sales to improve by six per cent compared to last year. 

Sales activity improved for all product types. The growth was largest for apartment-style and attached properties. 

Attached sales increased for the sixth consecutive month compared to the previous year. This is also the only property type with year-to-date sales higher than last year’s levels. 

New listings continued to ease this month, which caused inventory to decline. This is helping the market shift toward more balanced conditions.

The amount of downward pressure on prices is also easing. At $426,000, the unadjusted citywide benchmark price this month remained comparable to last month, but 2.6 per cent lower than last year’s levels.

Despite improving sales and reductions in inventory, housing market recovery will take time. Inventory levels remain elevated and sales activity is still well below historical norms. The market continues to favour the buyer, with over four months of supply.

HOUSING MARKET FACTS

Detached

• Year-to-date detached sales remain just below last year’s levels, but sales improved in the South and North West districts this month.  
• Citywide growth has been driven by homes priced under $500,000. Meanwhile, easing sales and elevated inventories among homes priced above $500,000 have increased the months of supply, pushing it further into buyers’ market territory.
• Benchmark prices in August ranged from a year-over-year decline of over five per cent in the South district to a decline of nearly one per cent in the South East.    

Apartment

• For the second month in a row, sales activity improved for apartment-style homes, but these gains were met with a rise in new listings. This prevented any significant adjustments to inventory levels and kept the months of supply elevated.
• Sales activity remains just below last year’s levels. On average, the amount of inventory in the market this year has eased compared to last year.
• Citywide benchmark prices in August eased compared to last year, but the East, South East and North East districts recorded modest gains. Despite those gains, prices remain well below 2014 highs.

Attached

• For the sixth consecutive month, year-over-year attached sales improved in the city. This has resulted in year-to-date sales of 2,665 units, nearly a five per cent increase compared to the previous year. At the same time, new listings continue to ease, causing further reductions in inventory.
• The months of supply have moved from over six months at this time last year to under five months in August.
• These improvements have supported some monthly gains in benchmark prices, but August benchmark prices remain 2.6 per cent below last year’s levels.

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

• Despite a year-over-year decline in sales activity this month, year-to-date sales sit just above last year’s levels. Unlike Calgary, most of the growth here has been driven by gains in the detached sector. Year-to-date new listings have eased by 13 per cent and inventories have edged down relative to last year.
• A general trend toward more balanced conditions has eased downward pressure on prices. The benchmark price was $334,600 in August – 1.8 per cent below last year’s levels.

Cochrane

• Fuelled by reductions in new listings and stable sales, inventories continue to trend down. This has supported some easing in the months of supply, which dropped from nearly eight months in August of last year to five months this year. 
• Reductions in oversupply have supported more stability in monthly prices. The benchmark price was $408,000 in August, nearly four per cent below last year’s levels.

Okotoks

• Improving sales in August contributed to year-to date sales of 373 units, slightly higher than last year’s levels, but still below long-term averages. The number of new listings continues to ease. This is causing inventories to decline and reducing the months of supply.
• Months of supply dropped from nearly 10 months last year to under five months this August. Despite this reduction in oversupply, benchmark prices so far this year have remained over four per cent below last year’s levels.

Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.

Click here to view the full Calgary region monthly stats package.

The article CREB® August 2019 Statistics See more on: Seller Direct Real Estate

CREB® July 2019 Statistics

Media release: Sales improving and inventory declines for fourth month in a row

City of Calgary, August 1, 2019 – For the fourth consecutive month, inventories in the market declined compared to last year. This is due to the combination of improving sales and a decline in new listings. 

The market continues to favour the buyer, but a continuation in supply reduction compared to sales is needed to support more balanced conditions.

“We are starting to see reductions in supply across the resale, rental and new-home markets,” said CREB^® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

“This adjustment in supply to the lower levels of demand will support more balanced conditions. It is starting to support more stability in prices. If this continues, the housing market should be better positioned for recovery as we move into 2020.”

Year-to-date sales activity remains just below last year’s levels and well below longer-term averages. However, the reduction in inventory has caused the months of supply in July to ease to 4.5 months, a significant improvement from the 5.5 months recorded last year.  

With less oversupply in the market, prices are showing some signs of stability on a monthly basis. This is causing the rate of price decline to ease on a year-over-year basis. Overall, year-to-date benchmark prices remain over four per cent below last year’s levels.

HOUSING MARKET FACTS

Detached

• Sales activity in July was slightly higher than last year’s levels, but it was not enough to offset earlier declines, as year-to-date sales remain just below last year’s levels. Despite overall declines, trends vary significantly by price range. Year-to-date sales for product priced below $500,000 have improved by 11 per cent compared to last year, while sales over $500,000 have declined by nearly 16 per cent. 
• New listings continue to ease for detached product, reducing inventory across most price ranges. This is also starting to result in year-over-year declines in the months of supply for all prices ranges except homes over $1 million. 
• Adjustments in sales and inventories also vary significantly by district. Year-to-date sales have declined across all districts except the North West and South districts. Easing inventories have not occurred across all districts, with year-over-year July inventory gains occurring in both the City Centre and West districts. 
• Buyers’ market conditions persist, with detached benchmark prices at $488,400 in July. This is over three per cent lower than last year’s levels. Price declines range from a high of 5.7 per cent in the South district to a low of 1.4 per cent in the North East district.

Apartment

• Despite improvement in July, year-to-date sales for apartment condominiums eased by over four per cent and remain well below longer-term averages.
• Available rental supply and ample selection in the new-home sector have impacted sales in the resale market. However, inventories continue to adjust, reducing the oversupply in this sector. 
• With conditions favouring the buyer, prices continue to edge down. However, year-to-date benchmark price declines are not occurring across all districts, with modest gains occurring in the North East district. 

Attached

• The attached sector is the only sector with recorded growth in year-to-date sales, up nearly four per cent. The affordable nature of this product, relative to detached, has likely supported some of these gains. 
• The number of new listings continues to ease. This is causing inventory declines and reductions in oversupply. Like the other sectors, this segment continues to favour the buyer, preventing any significant changes in prices.
• Both row and semi-detached prices remain over three per cent lower than last year’s levels and well below historical highs. Attached price declines have been the highest in the City Centre district at over five per cent.

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

• For the fifth consecutive month, year-over-year sales improved in Airdrie. Year-to-date sales reached 757 units, over three per cent higher than last year. Improving sales combined with declines in new listings have resulted in less inventory in the market compared to last year. This market is moving toward balanced conditions.
• Oversupply is easing, but July benchmark prices remain over three per cent below last year’s levels. There are steeper price declines occurring in the higher density sectors of the market.

Cochrane

• Year-to-date residential sales in Cochrane totalled 376 units, slightly lower then last year’s levels. New listings have been in decline, resulting in the fourth consecutive month with a year-over-year decline in inventory. 
• This has caused the amount of oversupply to ease, supporting more stability in pricing. As of July, the benchmark price in Cochrane is $408,300, over four per cent lower than last year’s levels.

Okotoks

• Total residential sales in Okotoks have totalled 321 units so far in 2019. This is similar to last year, but below long-term trends. New listings continue to trend down, supporting inventory declines and easing in the months of supply. 
• As the amount of oversupply in the market eases, prices have been showing signs of improvement compared to the previous month. However, year-to-date benchmark prices remain over four per cent lower than last year’s levels.

Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.

Click here to view the full Calgary region monthly stats package.

CREB® July 2019 Statistics was first published on https://www.sellerdirect.com

CREB® Mid-Year Market Update

Mid-year market update: Modest supply reductions may signal shift to balanced housing market by end of year

City of Calgary, July 22, 2019 – A struggling energy sector continues to weigh on the overall economy. Unemployment levels remain elevated and income growth remains weak. 

However, Calgary continues to benefit from stable population growth fuelled by international migration and natural increases.

“With current economic conditions, we expect housing demand will remain similar to levels recorded last year,” said CREB^® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie. Supply continues to adjust in the resale market, as well as the new-home and rental markets. Reductions in housing supply are expected to move the resale market toward more balanced conditions and support price stability by the end of the year.

“While supply declines are expected to support price stability by the end of the year, on an annual basis, prices are expected to remain lower than levels recorded last year across all property types,” said Lurie.

Conditions throughout specific price ranges and product types will continue to vary. Growth in the attached and detached markets will continue to be fuelled from the lower end of the market, but apartment activity will continue to face challenges due to the competition from new product and rentals.

Nonetheless, supply declines will help to better position the broader market moving into 2020.

Three things to know about the 2019 mid-year forecast:

• Stable lending rates and the new shared-equity mortgage program may support modest improvements in housing demand in the second half of the year.
• Concerns regarding slowing global growth and impacts on commodity prices may affect consumer confidence and housing sales.
• Slowing economic activity in the province may result in weaker job growth than the current forecast suggests.

For more information, please refer to CREB^®‘s 2019 Economic Outlook & Regional Housing Market Mid-Year Update, available here.

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